Volume 3 / 17 August 2020

Redburn Power Transmission Monthly Index (PTMI) June 2020

European short-cycle, June did not improve versus May as hoped

While the headline YoY% order and revenue declines in June are materially better than those seen in May, these do not take into account the significant positive working day impact of two more days this June and two less days this May versus 2019.  Adjusting for the +9.9% working day impact in June and the -9.4% working day impact in May and based on our survey of 28 companies (with €3.7bn of aggregate revenues), we calculate that mechanical power transmission orders (manufacturers and distributors combined) fell 18% YoY in June (100bp worse than the -17% seen in May). Sales, calculated on the same basis, fell 18% YoY (500bp worse than the -13% seen in May). On a more positive front, inventories, calculated on the same basis, fell 16% YoY suggesting some healthy destocking.
To get insights into Redburn’s forecast for Q3 and trend analysis, get onboard the Power Transmission Monthly Index program. The index and analysis are only available to members who are actively contributing with key trends and indices to the sample research.
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ITR Economics

Market Forecast

Europe’s Annual Industrial Production to fall to levels last seen in late 2010. ITR’s forecast was revised downward due to the impact of COVID-19 and the oil supply-demand imbalance. The annual production forecast was revised downward by 10.2% and 10.1% for 2020 and 2021, respectively. Annual Production will decline into mid-2021, falling to levels last seen in late 2010. Production will subsequently rise through. Annual Production will subsequently rise through at least yearend 2021; activity will not reach pre-pandemic levels during that time.

Trends in the Europe Leading Indicator and the Europe Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index signal cyclical decline for Production into the first half of 2020, in line with our outlook.  Should stay-at-home orders be extended into the second half of this year, it would be a downside risk to our forecast.
Download the full ITR Forecast on Europe, China, India and USA’s industrial production, manufacturing and distribution industry.
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Oxford Economics

Industry Outlook

For EPTDA, Oxford Economics report covers detailed analysis of Manufacturing Output, Construction Output, Service Sector Output, Value of Industrial Production per country, overall Industrial Production as a share of GDP, and top 10 fastest-growing and slowest-growing sectors per country.

The Q2-2020 analysis shows that all key indicators are expected to contract in 2020 for all countries covered in the data: Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Russia, Spain, Turkey and the UK. Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2020 – with Italy, Germany and France losing with double digit numbers.
Download the full forecast report for detailed forecast from 2020 till 2025/29 on overall industrial production, construction, Services, Agriculture, GVA and GDP
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EU Monitoring

COVID measures by EU

Logistics firms and supply chain industry overall have been directly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Because they facilitate trade and commerce and help businesses get their products to customers, supply chain disruptions to the sector caused by the pandemic could, therefore, impact competitiveness, economic growth, and job creation.

The good news is the manufacturing picked back up—by the end-February, about 70 percent of large industry had restarted operations. But there is also bad news: a return to full production capacity is unlikely in the short term. Actually, new data from Ti reveals most logistics and supply chain executives do not expect volumes to return to normal levels before 2021 - at the earliest.

Fortunately, the European institutions have prepared a series of mechanisms to help companies in need of financial assistance - as well as the population.
Download the full EU Monitoring on all measures taken as a response to covid-19 crisis
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EPTDA Corporate Presentation

EPTDA’s Corporate Presentation is a quarterly review of the association’s activities, strategic roadmap, objectives, data & intelligence reports, governance, membership companies overview, geographical and product category overview. It’s a compact guide to all essential benefits and agenda of EPTDA.We urge all our volunteers and members to use this powerful tool to help us raise awareness and attract new members.
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