Blue-Action Winter Newsletter 2019

Gerard McCarthy of Maynooth University, Ireland, was awarded the International Association for the Physical Sciences of the Ocean (IAPSO) Early Career medal earlier this year.

Congratulations also to Valerio Lucarina from the University of Reading, who was recently announced as the recipient of the 2020 Lewis Fry Richardson medal by the European Geosciences Union.

 

Observing the AMOC: current state and future systems
 

How do we design our ocean observing systems to be future-proof, and comprehensive enough to understand the complexity of ocean circulation? Authors including colleagues from Blue-Action published a review article in Frontiers in Marine Science setting out guidelines for these systems observing the AMOC.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a large system of ocean currents that extends from the Southern Ocean to the northern North Atlantic.  It acts like a conveyor belt, carrying warm water northwards where it cools, sinks into the depths and spreads southwards. It is vital to our climate system, distributing heat around the earth and mixing ocean waters.

The AMOC has only been measured continuously since 2004, but through international collaboration there are a wide range of observing systems, including the large-scale arrays OSNAP and RAPID. These concerted observational efforts have dramatically increased our understanding of the AMOC: for example, see an earlier paper here.

This paper is an in-depth analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the current systems, and explores alternative approaches. The authors suggest keeping observing arrays to maintain the high-resolution estimates of the AMOC, combined with distributed sampling such as the use of satellites, which can increase the geographical coverage. Read more about this review here.
 

 

Organisations are increasingly working in partnership with individuals or communities to design and implement climate adaptation measures. This method of “co-production” is now widespread across many countries, at local, national and international levels. However, it needs to be supported by a body of evidence of successes and limitations in order to move forward and develop as a field.

Erik Kolstad from NORCE and colleagues have produced “an honest reflection on experiences in a climate services project…with concrete recommendations on how to put ideas of co-production into practice.” This paper provides valuable insights into applying these ideas to a Norwegian region, and the challenges faced by the team. To read more about their experiences, look here.
 

In focus: Marine Fisheries Forecasts
 

Can we use climate models to predict fish abundance and distribution?

One of the Blue-Action case studies highlighting the potential for climate services demonstrates the success of creating fish forecasts using climate models.

The huge progress in ocean observations and modelling over the last few years now mean that we have the potential to predict ocean variables such as sea surface temperature as much as a decade ahead. While this scientific advance has important implications for physical predictions, the links with how we might be able to predict biological systems are still underexplored.

In the marine environment, many fish species are responsive to their physical environment, from temperature to salinity. By understanding the links between fish recruitment, distribution or abundance and these environmental variables, we create the potential to be able to predict biological systems by using physical models.

One of our Blue-Action case studies, led by Mark Payne from DTU, explores this fascinating area of research and is showing great promise. Forecasts of spatial distribution of species such as blue whiting and mackerel have been found to show good agreement with later survey data. Impressively, forecasts of recruitment (productivity) of economically important species such as sandeel and cod have been recently developed, and could form the basis of a new and exciting climate service.

This work is a significant contribution to the field: each of the physical-biological relationships is a new discovery that can influence modelling in the future. Arguably the most important of these is the identification of potential predictability in the recruitment to sandeel and cod stocks. Previously these species have been viewed to be unpredictable in marine science, so the potential of these models to assist decision-making is of huge interest to policy-makers, conservationists and industry internationally.

A new report on the progress of this work will be released next year: watch out for updates.

Future Events
 

Arctic Observing Summit,
31st March - 2nd April 2020
 

The AOS fosters international collaboration and coordination of long-term observations improving understanding of  system-scale Arctic change. Registration is open here.

Looking Back
 

Arctic Circle, Reykjavik, Iceland
10th - 13th October 2019
 

 

 

How can ocean observations and predictions help respond to the climate emergency? Stakeholders from across Scotland representing a range of industries, NGOs and policy-makers were invited to an event led by Blue-Action to explore these questions for the country. Five speakers gave short introductions to the Blue-Action project, the Scottish government position on climate adaptation, ocean observing systems, climate modelling, and climate services before a lively two-way dialogue with participants. 

Blue-Action Annual Meeting, Edinburgh, UK
15th - 17th October, 2019
 

Many thanks to everyone who travelled to Edinburgh for the Blue-Action Annual Meeting in 2019. There was a fantastic range of talks from all partners, showcasing the progress and diversity of science being undertaken throughout the project. The meeting was also a valuable opportunity to review the past year and plan for the next one as a project, and build collaborations between partners. We look forward to getting together again in 2020!

And finally...
 

In a fantastic example of science-art collaboration, Marius Årthun from the University of Bergen participated in a programme by the Bergen Philharmonic Orchestra, combining science talks with a performance of "Becoming Ocean."

Read more about this brilliant event here.