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US EV Sales to reach 405,000 in 2019 - but the Tesla Model 3 is a huge wildcard
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EVAdoption - Note from the editor

This weekend I had two articles go live on CleanTechnica:

Forecast: 2019 US EV Sales Growth Will Drop To ~12%

I’ve forecasted US EV sales growth in 2019 of 12% to 405,000 units versus 361,307 and 81% for 2018. The Tesla Model 3 is of course the wild card in 2019. In the article I share several charts and forecasts for the Model 3, existing available EVs, and the 11 new EVs I expect to reach the US in 2019. In addition I map out 7 macro trends that could have a negative impact on EV sales this year.


Open Letter To Toyota USA: Go All In On The Prius Prime, Kill The Regular Prius Hybrid

The second article was an "open letter" to Toyota where I analyzed sales and market trends for hybrids, PHEVs, the Prius liftback and Prius Prime PHEV. Based on my analysis - which clearly shows consumers are shifting away from hybrids to PHEVs and BEVs - I made 4 recommendations on what to do with the Prius (a Toyota executive had recently expressed that they weren't sure what to do with the hybrid). The following was a comment on my CleanTechnica article:

Toyota spent around $9 Billion USD on Research and Dev in 2018. It's a bit amusing to think they would be interested in the opinion of some guy with an EV website. Arrogant ignorance- at least the US still has one thing in abundance.


For the record, I of course don't expect Toyota to listen to an "EV blogger." But I do feel strongly that Toyota is mishandling the Prius hybrid and its continued declining sales suggest that the company certainly doesn't have a compelling strategy for the iconic car. This is especially evident since the Prius Prime PHEV version is selling very well and was the #2 highest selling EV in the US in 2018.

And Toyota failed miserably in the US with its bet on the Mirai fuel cell vehicle, so clearly despite it huge R&D investments and success in the auto market, the company is not immune to some stumbles.


Industry News of Interest

It was quite a week for EV-related news, especially coming out of the Detroit Auto Show. One of the biggest stories of course was that Ford is going to produce a BEV version of the F-150 pickup. While that got EV advocates buzzing, I'm not convinced it is the right strategy for the iconic pickup, whose sales are more than that of Coca-Cola. More on that in the future ...

Following are a few articles on some of the big automaker announcements and a few on EV charging developments and investments that you may have missed:

Ford is developing hybrid and all-electric F-150 pickup trucks it says won't skimp on power - CNBC, January 17 

An All-Electric Ford F-150 Pickup Truck Is Happening - Car and Driver, January 17 

Ford product boss: EVs will be profitable - Automotive News, January 15  

Volkswagen to invest $800 million, build new electric vehicle in U.S. - Reuters, January 14

Thousands of GM engineers reassigned to work on EVs - Axios, January 11 

Nissan electric crossover due in 2020 closely follows IMx concept - Green Car Reports, January 15 

New player claims technology leap in electric vehicle charging - Axios, January 17

ARDA Power’s EV Charging DC Microgrid includes gas power, solar, battery storage and DC fast charging - Charged, January 15

Charging ahead: VW follows Tesla into power business - Green Car Reports, January 15 

Volvo Group Venture Capital invests in wireless electric charging - CNBC, January 12

As always, would love to hear from you - send me an email with your comments and suggestions.

Plugs not pumps!

Loren McDonald
EVAdoption
Analyst/Writer/Speaker

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