“I wish I had an answer to that because I'm tired of answering that question.”
― Yogi Berra
That is a tough question to answer. After all, the consumer was able to spend through the Covid shock due to the massive stimulus in the spring and summer. For its part, the consumer figured out how to spend the money. Cannot go out to eat? Buy more groceries. Do not want to ride public transit? Buy a car. While the economic pain was real, there were also numerous booms. Housing is another example of where the money flowed.
In the midst of an economy still emerging (and that never fully emerged) from lockdown, the economy - and specifically the consumer - bounced back with vigor and vengeance. Which makes it a bit difficult to see how a vaccine is going to significantly alter the trajectory of the economy. Certainly, spending is likely to pivot away from elevated grocery to restaurants. But will it really act as an accelerant to the overall economic picture?